by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
The Democrats face an insurmountable obstacle in their ongoing quest to oust the president. Trump himself succinctly captured their dilemma last Friday: “Unemployment Rate, at 3.5%, drops to a 50 YEAR LOW. Wow America, lets impeach your President.” Numerous polls purport to show increased public support for impeachment, yet Trump clearly doesn’t take them seriously. He knows the voters will make the final call. If the House impeaches him, the chances of a Senate conviction are nil. Thus, the president’s fate will be decided in November 2020. Will the voters support an impeached president? If the economy remains strong, he’ll win in a landslide.
Given the choice between reelecting a chief executive who presided over a robust economy while fending off an illegitimate impeachment and replacing him with one of the Democratic authors of that outrage, the voters will back the president in huge numbers. He would inevitably be seen by his base as a martyr to the most corrupt elements of “the swamp,” and they will be out for revenge. Meanwhile, a majority of swing voters would most likely regard him as vindicated, while viewing the Democrats unfavorably — having seen their partisan chicanery laid bare in the Senate trial. The support of swing voters, however, will rely heavily on the state of the economy on Election Day.