Liz Mair writes for Real Clear Politics about the political impact of inflation.
Across the Western world over the past year, incumbent political parties have been getting thrashed in elections.
Contrary to some of the dominant narrative, this trend is not reflective of a massive shift toward the hard right across a range of countries – though hard right parties have benefited.
The likelier explanation is that a sizeable chunk of voters, or at least swing voters, are ejecting those who were driving the train when inflation was running high – and that even after inflation rates come down, it take voters awhile to notice, adjust to higher prices, start regarding them as “normal” and “to be anticipated,” and return to anything approaching prior levels of comfort with incumbents.
The latest – and best – indicator of this trend can be seen in current data sets from the U.S. Democrats have been frustrated to note that well into 2024, many voters have continued to express concern about “inflation,” when it’s been over two years since inflation peaked at 9.1% and inflation has not run at 5% or above since March 2023. For two months now, inflation has actually been running at less than 3%. But only two and a bit years after that peak 9.1% number are we seeing actual inflation expectations down to their lowest since 2020. It seems that people are acclimating to higher prices that were locked in a couple of years ago – “finally,” Democrats might be heard to sigh. At the same time, in every swing state – AZ, GA, NC, NV, MI, PA, WI – we’ve seen an uptick in Vice President Harris’ polling numbers. Of note, this is not compared to where President Biden’s numbers were against Trump at the point Biden withdrew – it is comparing where Harris started to where she is now. This year’s election is still likely to be very close, and Harris’ movement is in many cases within the margin of error of polls. But the trend line is clear – Harris has been moving up as inflation has been going down and people have had more time to adjust.
