Weekly John Locke Foundation research division newsletter focusing on environmental issues.
The newsletter highlights relevant analysis done by the JLF and other think tanks as well as items in the news.
1. IPCC Climate Predictions vs Actual Climate: January 1990-February 2012
This article reviews the actual climate change data over the last 20 years and graphically compares it to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of global warming over the same period. The graph tells the story but here’s the scoop: for more than the last 10 years the IPCC not only got the amount of warming that would occur completely wrong; their prediction actually got the direction of climate change wrong.
Here’s the conclusion from observing the actual data:
Despite human CO2 emissions continuing to grow in a ‘business-as-usual‘ manner…global warming has stopped and is currently declining…’global cooling’ would be the more accurate description for the last 10 years.
Here are a few other headlines that flow from actual temperature observations (as opposed to model predictions):
2012 Winter (December-February) 2nd coldest in 15 years despite CO2 emissions continuing to increase
2. What’s the story with air quality in Wilmington and New Hanover County?
According to those opposing the construction of the Titan Cement Plant in Wilmington, air quality in the Wilmington area is horrible, but the most recent data shows quite the opposite. In fact, air quality in New Hanover County is darn near pristine according to 2011 data.
All of the following information has been obtained from the NC Division of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Air Quality web site. These are the three pollutants that tend to be of the most concern.
Ozone (smog) — During the 2011 ozone season, New Hanover County did not have a single high ozone day. In fact, the area didn’t have a single day that even came close. The EPA 8 hr standard is 75 parts per billion (ppb). The worst day in New Hanover County last year was 65 ppb.
Sulfur Dioxide (the alleged devil for the anti-Titan crowd) — The maximum allowable for the 1 hr standard according to the EPA is 75 ppb at the 99th percentile. New Hanover had 54 ppb at the 99th percentile.
Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) — The EPA maximum standard is an arithmetic mean of 15 micrograms per cubic centimeter. New Hanover had 12.67.
Here’s the site. Feel free to check it out.
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