Keeping with my track record of making bold predictions that do not happen — why fix what’s broke? — I think that Julius Peppers signs another contract with the Panthers.
I think all the fret and fuss about his contract situation is tremendously overblown. The fellas at WFNZ already have him franchised and traded away.
This assumes that Pep really thinks that going into a new market with a huge new contract, press conference, expectations etc. is going to be lower profile for him than staying put. I don’t think he’ll want to go through the harsh media spotlight changing teams would entail. And I do not think anyone has said that Julius wants to be absolutely sure that he maxes out his payday, the money will be huge regardless of where he lands.
On the flip side, who out there is gonna both look to pay Pep $17m. a year and part with something of value for the honor of doing so? That’s always the catch for folks who go down the trade this, trade that route — you have to have a trading partner. I’m not so sure there is one after the Panthers flameout in the first round with pretty much zero impact from Peppers on a dominant Card offensive performance. Were the Panthers coming off a Super Bowl win in which Pep had a couple sacks, different story, different value.
The one exception — the one I’ve heard exactly no one bring up — is the case where Peppers is hell-bent on getting to a 3-4 team. The scheme has again proved dominant in the playoffs, either the Steelers or Ravens will play it in the Super Bowl and the Cards show some 3-4 looks when they are not catching Jake Delhomme’s passes.
The Chargers used the 3-4 to upset the Colts in the wild card round, while the Fins turned their fortunes around behind it. Some guy named Bill schemes it in NE. Peppers’ fellow Tar Heel DE Greg Ellis plays OLB for Dallas at 6-6, 262. Might a guy 6-7, 290 who is often dropped into coverage on passive 4-3 zone blitz schemes wonder how he’d fare as a full-time pass rusher in a 3-4? Things start to get interesting.
Then again, the Panthers could get wise to the situation, dump their own ineffectual 4-3 DC and take the 3-4 plunge — provided the team moves fast enough to lock up 3-4 coaches. Personnel-wise the switch may not be that big of a stretch, especially if Dan Connor comes back from injury and shows the first-round talent many scouts saw in the Penn State LB.
In fact, given the reality of the situation, I’d say it is more likely that the Panthers dump Mike Trgovac and go 3-4 than that Peppers plays elsewhere next season. But if #90 does opt to move on, I’d be utterly shocked if it were to another 4-3 team.