by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
If you can head to the John Locke Foundation’s Shaftesbury Society meeting at noon today, you’ll have a chance to hear insights from Jim Geraghty, author of the new novel The Weed Agency and the man behind National Review Online’s blog, “The Campaign Spot.”
Perhaps you can ask him about this morning’s contribution.
The Massive New York Times & CBS Poll That Should Frighten Democrats
The New York Times and CBS News tried a massive endeavor to collect a lot more polling data from everywhere in the country. The results – even if they’re iffy, and it’s only late July – should send a chill down the spine of every Democrat:
On Sunday, the research firm YouGov, in partnership with The New York Times and CBS News, released the first wave of results from an online panel of more than 100,000 respondents nationwide, which asked them their preferences in coming elections. The results offer a trove of nonpartisan data and show a broad and competitive playing field heading into the final few months of the campaign.
The Republicans appear to hold a slight advantage in the fight for the Senate and remain in a dominant position in the House. They need to pick up six seats to gain Senate control, and they hold a clear advantage in races in three states: South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia. The data from YouGov, an opinion-research firm that enjoyed success in 2012, finds the G.O.P. with a nominal lead in five additional states. …
… A couple reasons to find these results plausible:
It’s not all roses and sunshine for Republicans. In Colorado, Cory Gardner, one of the stronger GOP challengers, trails Sen. Mark Udall, 47 percent to 51 percent. In Alaska, Begich leads both challengers listed. In the two GOP-held seats that the party needs to keep, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is up 4 and in Georgia, Purdue is up 6 on Michelle Nunn – neither margin is particularly overwhelming in states that are deep red in presidential elections.
There aren’t a lot of results that look wacky. In four of the Senate races where the GOP candidate leads, the margins are 2 percentage points or less – Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, and Terri Lynn Land in Michigan. Flip those, and Republicans only gain four seats, a sum most on the Right would find disappointing.
If there’s a thumb on the scale, it’s the wrong one. If you think of the New York Times and CBS News as liberal news organizations, these results are an argument against interest.