The Russian solar physicists’ $10,000 bet with the British climate scientist that the planet will be cooler in the next decade because they believe this wacky notion that the sun causes global warming already had reminded me of the great economic optimist and author of The Ultimate Resource (which I highly recommend).
Now I read in The New York Times that John Tierney has a $10,000 bet with Matthew Simmons over the price of oil. The details:
Mr. Simmons said he favored a simpler wager, based on his expectation that the price of oil, now about $65 per barrel, would more than triple during the next five years. He said he’d bet that the price in 2010, when adjusted for inflation so it’s stated in 2005 dollars, would be at least $200 per barrel.
Remembering a tip from Julian, I suggested that we use the average price for the whole year of 2010 instead of the price on any particular date – that way, neither of us would be vulnerable to a sudden short-term swing as the market reacted to some unexpected news. Mr. Simmons agreed, and we sealed the deal by e-mail.
The first person I told was Julian’s widow, Rita Simon, a public affairs professor at American University. She was delighted to see Julian’s tradition carried on and thought the bet sounded so good she wanted a piece of the action herself. With Mr. Simmons’s approval, we arranged for Rita and me to split the wager, with each of us putting up $2,500 against Mr. Simmons’s $5,000. … the winning side will collect the $10,000 plus any accrued interest on Jan. 1, 2011.
Hat tip: E. Frank Stephenson, DivisionofLabour.com
