James Antle of the Washington Examiner focuses on near-term political implications of the confirmation fight over U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
What a difference a week makes. Before Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee, it looked like a lose-lose situation for Republicans: Abandon Kavanaugh and depress the base ahead of the midterm elections; attack Ford and reap the whirlwind with women come November.
Now it is possible the battle over Kavanaugh could rally apathetic Republican voters, especially in the red states that will decide which party controls the Senate. It has reminded conservatives that whatever their views of President Trump, they are unlikely to be treated fairly by Democrats or a hostile media.
Make no mistake: The public is divided over who to believe, and in most polls a plurality picks Ford over Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh’s national numbers are lackluster. But Republicans do not need to win a national plebiscite to salvage their narrow Senate majority. They need to beat sitting Democratic senators in states like North Dakota. …
… If judicial confirmation politics changed the enthusiasm dynamic from where it was just a couple weeks ago, there is still time for it to change back in favor of the Democrats depending on what the outcome of the Kavanagh vote is. And since Kavanaugh’s defeat, if that is what ultimately transpires, would come at the hands of centrist Republicans, or gadfly conservatives like Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, it is possible the base would hold it against the GOP.
