But not for tropical weather. The storminess I?m talking about is the potential for electoral wind-shifting.
There are two highly competitive state senate contests on the coast. Both districts are currently held by Democrats. In District 2, centered on New Bern, Scott Thomas has a rematch against the GOP?s 2002 nominee, former Craven County commission chair Chuck Tyson. In District 6, centered on Jacksonville, Cecil Hargett didn?t get a rematch with his 2002 opponent, and instead will face car dealer and Democrat-turned-Republican Harry Brown.
These are swing districts in any event, and attracting lots of attention and dollars from both sides, but look out particularly for the Republicans. I?ve just noted in the voter-registration data that there appears to be a net increase of 3,000 Republican voters in Craven and a 4,300 net Republican increase in Onslow, respectively. These increases are larger than the margins by which Thomas (1,700) and Hargett (970) won in 2002.
If the GOP were to win these two seats, that would likely bring their numbers in the senate to at least 23 (there are 22 Republican-leaning seats already in the latest map, but I’m not assuming that the GOP will defeat Sen. David Hoyle in Gaston, so call it a 21-seat starting point). To get to 26, obviously, Republicans would have to win Hugh Webster?s swing seat in Alamance, which seems likely; Democrat Walter Dalton’s swing seat in Rutherford-Cleveland, which is iffy; and one other surprise victory. That could be Hoyle going down in a GOP turnout surge in Gaston. It could be an eastern Democrat such as A.B. Swindell in District 11 or John Kerry in District 5. It could be an urban Democrat such as Janet Cowell in Raleigh?s District 16 or Martin Nesbitt in Asheville?s District 49.
Could be. But any would properly be seen as an upset. Still, a closely divided senate, at least, seems like a reasonable prediction at this point unless Bush/Burr/Ballantine momentum collapses at the last minute, the way Bush/Vinroot did in 2000.
