To repeat what should be obvious: local government shouldn’t be in the business of subsidizing entertainment enterprises like, yes, baseball teams. But since such philosophical arguments don’t sell in Charlotte, here’s an argument based upon finance.

The big question in the Knights business plan (as filtered through the press) is whether they can consistently draw 600,000 fans a year. A quick look at minor league attendance numbers shows just how hard that is to do. Only four AAA teams of 30 drew 600,000 last year. Only two drew over 602,000 with the top being Lehigh Valley at 628,925. Round Rock drew 618,261.
On a 72 game schedule with a 10,000 seat stadium, assuming no rain outs, you have to fill 83 percent of seats on average. And that includes overcast cool Tuesday night in April when the kids are still in school. Charlotte ranked 29th of 30 at 279,107, or 4,104 per game last year.

What hasn’t been asked is what happens if the Knights move Uptown and only draw 400,000 or 500,000. According to the business case being presented to the city, is the team viable at those sorts of attendance numbers? If the answer is no or of that the Knights aren’t really saying or don’t know, then I don’t see how the city and county can justify the funding.

I suppose that it’s a good thing that city staff are proposing only giving the team $8.5 million instead of $11 million. Thing is though, I’m not sure the exact amount of city money really matters that much. The key thing is that they get some and the project gets going. If thinks go off track — and honestly, that won’t be a surprise — the Knights can simply run to the county and/or city and ask for more. And they will get it. And they, most certainly, know that too. Governments at all levels are quite good at recognizing sunk costs and thus quite willing to throw good money after bad.

You can look at minor-league baseball attendance number here.

Bonus observation: Curious that an Uptown baseball stadium isn’t Curt Walton’s $926 million capital plan. Would love to know why, but I think the answer is something that the powers that be don’t want to tell to the masses. My guess: baseball draws the wrong demographic. Families. The people that Walton wants to attract are young, well educated, make a lot of money and are childless. Walton’s vision doesn’t include competing for people to live in Charlotte after they breed (= require more space and quite possibly buy a house instead of live in a condo), so there’s little point in subsidizing something to bring families Uptown.