William Kristol‘s latest Weekly Standard column examines the factors contributing to President Obama’s decision to remove surge troops from Afghanistan by summer 2012:
The budget savings are trivial. The increased risk of mission failure in Afghanistan is great. There is even a real chance of a snowballing lack of confidence in the United States over the next weeks and months in Afghanistan, in the region, and even around the world.
So why September 2012? Because, one has to conclude, Election Day is November 6, 2012. The September deadline will allow candidate Obama to say that he has completely withdrawn the surge forces, and that we’re on our way out of Afghanistan and coming home. The timetable President Obama has set isn’t based on military considerations, diplomatic strategies, or financial calculations. It’s based on the election calendar of candidate Obama.
Maybe I’m being unjust. If so, President Obama can prove it. He can modify his statement of last night to say that he is open to changing his withdrawal timetable in light of conditions on the ground or subsequent recommendations of his military commanders. In particular, he can make clear that if his commanders in the theater believe that a change of only a few months could make a big difference, and that he will be open to moving the deadline from September 2012 to early 2013. And he can announce this modification now, if only to remove the obvious suspicion that he is subordinating the national interest in time of war to his personal electoral considerations.
