by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
[W]hile there’s never 100 percent probability in forecasting political risk, it seems the likelihood of health care reform by the summer and tax reform by year’s end (or early 2018) is quite high.
Paradoxically, special counsel Robert Mueller will provide cover for President Trump, as it will take him many months to complete his investigation. The leaks are going to dry up. By law, information on the probe must be protected. So, whatever the outcome, Trump will have months without the attack headlines in which to sell his tax-cut plan.
Meanwhile, amid all the controversies, the GOP Congress knows it could get whacked in next year’s midterms if it doesn’t govern — a big incentive.
And Trump still has the backing of his core base, which is at least 40 percent of the electorate. These disenchanted voters may not agree with everything he says. But they still strongly believe Trump is their best chance to drain the swamp — to overturn the Beltway elites, to deliver border security, to improve trade deals and to cut taxes and regulations to deliver the full-fledged deeply rooted sustainable prosperity we haven’t seen in 20 years.
Warts and all, Trump and his polices is still their vote. (He needs to go out there and rally these folks.)