James Antle of the Washington Examiner dissects 2022 primary election results for clues about the fall campaign.
Impeachment was bad news for Republicans, especially in the House. Only one of the 10 House Republicans who voted for former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment, this time over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to disrupt Biden’s election, is likely to still be in Congress next year.
Five retired rather than face the will of GOP primary voters, though Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) was also a victim of redistricting. Four of the five who sought renomination fell behind primary challengers. Only two will appear on the general election ballot in November, both participating in nonpartisan jungle primaries that advance the top two vote-getters. Zero received an absolute majority of the vote. …
… Trump’s endorsements mattered but weren’t infallible. Relatedly, the former president had a big impact on the Republican primaries, with his endorsees racking up a winning record. To be sure, Trump padded those numbers by endorsing some Republicans, especially incumbents, who were shoo-ins even without his backing. And some high-profile endorsements fizzled, especially in Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp defeated Trump-endorsed former Sen. David Perdue in a landslide.
Still, Trump compiled 217 wins to 19 losses. …
… Democrats often colluded with Trump. For all the party’s warnings about MAGA threats to democracy. Democrats have spent $53 million promoting far-right candidates in GOP primaries. Many of them cast doubt on the 2020 presidential election and were endorsed by Trump.
The logic was to produce Republican nominees who will be easier to beat in November. This could obviously backfire. …
… If Republicans don’t retake the Senate, there will be a lot of finger-pointing. Trump’s endorsements were decisive in the GOP Senate primaries for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. His recruit wound up the nominee without much of a fight in Georgia. Trump-endorsed candidates are the nominees in North Carolina and Nevada.
