Pay very close attention to what happens with the state employee health plan legislation the General Assembly just sent to Bev Perdue. Should Perdue and the Democrats somehow manage to “win” what should be a slam-dunk policy change for the Republicans — making state employees pay something toward their health care — watch out. That could snowball through the rest of this legislative session and right into the hyper-political year of 2012.

Realistically nothing of substance will get done next year — it will all be political posturing in advance of November. That and donor and interest-group stroking. Which is why the GOP has to get its agenda across sooner rather than later. By across I mean into the minds of your basic, average suburban voter. Inside baseball stuff like crowing over another predictable hole in Perdue’s fiscal rain barrel does not count.

After a decent enough start, state GOP leaders have gotten themselves stuck in the weeds more often than not in recent weeks on Voter ID and charter schools. The health bill was intended to be a quick win to build some momentum.

We are just going to have to wait and see how that plays out.

Bonus Reminder: I recall being hooted at for saying Obama was positioning himself to carry North Carolina in 2008, that given the meta-message he was crafting it was a distinct possibility. Now ask yourself how statewide Republicans respond to a meme that paints them as inept, mean, and “extreme.” They seem to think that “businesslike” “confident” and “leadership” are the talismans. They are not.