As The Charlotte Observer‘s Jim Morrill reports today, the chances of North Carolina having much of an impact on the GOP presidential primary increased after the split results Tuesday. That raises the possibility that supporters of the marriage amendment might benefit from greater Republican turnout on May 8 after all, as voters head to the polls to pick their nominee of choice.
The odds are long that Rick Santorum will amass enough delegates to win — and very long that Newt Gingrich will — but that might not stop a lot of conservatives from turning out in North Carolina, even if it is only a protest vote.
Three of the four remaining candidates (the only exception being Ron Paul) have signed the National Organization for Marriage’s pledge to support a federal marriage amendment, so candidates (particularly Santorum) will probably try to “out-conservative” the other guys on this issue when campaigning in North Carolina.
Also remember that Democrats have their own gubernatorial primary, which will drive turnout. I doubt anyone expected the marriage amendment would be along side so many high-profile races when the legislature decided to put the ballot question on the May, rather than November, ballot.
