Jane Shaw writes for the Martin Center about the impact of declining college and university enrollment.
A specter is haunting higher education—the specter of declining enrollments. University and college enrollment has fallen nearly 9 percent since 2011, according to the National Student Clearinghouse, and no one is exactly sure why.
The decrease is not that obvious yet because the decline follows many decades of tremendous growth in enrollment. On a website with national statistics, the Department of Education is still describing enrollment growth as positive. It doesn’t report the latest statistics, and enrollment is still well above what it was in 2000. The Department also estimates that enrollment will increase moderately over the next decade.
But the trend is down, according to the Clearinghouse, which tracks admissions of approximately 97 percent of all students and reports more recent figures than does the Department of Education. The decline started with severe inroads into for-profit school enrollment in 2012. That was at the height of a federal crackdown on for-profit schools, led publicly by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA). Accusing the schools of aggressive student recruitment and low graduation rates, the federal government forced two large schools to close (Corinthian Colleges and ITT Technical Institute), and the bad publicity led to public doubts about others.
Then the decreases spread to community colleges and nonprofit colleges and universities. Enrollments at four-year public universities are still largely holding even, although there have been sporadic declines.
