If you haven’t been paying attention, there’s a special election in Massachusettes [sic] tomorrow. The winner takes over the seat previously held by Ted Kennedy.

To the astonishment of the world, Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley appears likely to lose to GOP state Sen. Scott Brown. (Intrade, for instance, has been a terrific predictor of election outcomes, and currently, Coakley is getting smoked.)

The race has been covered in lots of places, but the bottom line is, the winner will either be the 60th vote for ObamaCare (Coakley) or the 41st vote against it (Brown).

My two cents on the fallout from the special election:

1) Coakley wins easily. Not likely, but if it happens, the last-minute push to bring Obama and former President Clinton and lots and lots of union folks and other campaign workers to get out the vote succeeded. At a cost of more than $1 million from national party coffers to protect an insanely safe seat.

2) Coakley wins in a squeaker. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will scramble to wrap up a health care bill fast, before a handful of Dems start to look like this guy and bail on their party leaders.

3) Brown wins by a nose. Obamacare is history. Sure, Dems will try to arrive at some formula to pass the Senate bill verbatim, but it won’t work. A dozen or more Democratic incumbents decide they’d rather spend more time with their families than seek re-election.

4) Brown wins in a walk (54 percent or more).

UPDATE: Brown is in the state Senate, not the state House.