Yesterday the N&R editorialized that it was “encouraging” that Gov. Pat McCrory and DHHS Secretary Aldona Wos were reconsidering expanding Medicaid in North Carolina.

But who really makes that call?

But two key lawmakers with oversight responsibility of her agency made it clear that, given Medicaid’s checkered history, and lingering problems resolving years of mismanagement and budget overruns, the belief that Medicaid — the government health insurance program for the poor and disabled — is ready to accept more participants is a Pollyanaish view.

Wos has told several media outlets that the foundation is in place for a more efficient and more effective Medicaid system, and that she will ask McCrory to expand Medicaid in the near term. McCrory has said through a spokesman that he is confident in Wos, and she will advise him when the time is right to expand. But before that happens, the governor will have to convince skeptical legislators.

“I will say that the original rejection of the Medicaid expansion by the General Assembly required that any plan for expansion had to come through the General Assembly, and not through an executive decision, and I don’t feel that we’re in any position right now to consider expansion under the Affordable Care Act,” said state Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell.

You guessed it —trying to get straight numbers on how much the state is already spending on Medicaid in just the first two months of the FY 2015 is proving difficult, especially considering the fact that –as acting Division of Medical Assistance director of finance Rudy Dimmling put it —““there are certain outliers that you can’t predict”— one of which is –you guessed it again —- Obamacare round two.

With all this in mind, I’ll make a prediction —the $180 million in contingency reserves for Medicaid isn’t going to get it.