Political observers know that mid-term elections typically break for the party that doesn’t occupy the White House. One exception was 2002, when Republicans retook the U.S. Senate and strengthened their majority in the House, despite the fact that Bush was president. 9/11 had much to do with that.
Contrary to the ’02 anomaly, however, the mid-terms next year are shaping up to follow historical trends, barring some colossal event. It’s early days yet, but political analysts are offering some speculation on the scenario next year (reported in the Politico):
Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that ?the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.?
“Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of d?j? vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,? he wrote.
At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.
?A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,? Silver told POLITICO. ?Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it?s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.?
