by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
As the 2022 midterms loom ever closer, Republicans have increased their generic ballot lead by two points in the last fortnight. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll, released Friday, reveals that voters are ready to cast a ballot for Republicans over Democrats by a 10-point margin — 49% to 39%. This is a two-point improvement from the July 9 survey, which had generic Republicans up over Democrats by eight points (47% to 39%). According to Rasmussen, when asked, “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?”—
“49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure.”
The last time control of Congress changed hands, in 2018, Democrats held a seven-point generic Congressional ballot advantage among likely voters in July (47% to 40%). The spread tightened to a statistical dead heat by Election Day. When the dust settled, Republicans had increased their hold on the Senate while Democrats had won a slim majority in the House.
But things are looking decidedly redder going into the 2022 midterm season:
“The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.”
Another notable statistic out of the latest Rasmussen poll is that 27% of black voters prefer a generic Republican candidate while 57% would vote for a Democrat.