by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
A slew of just-published polls spell bad news for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump: The overwhelming majority of people don’t want to see either run for president in 2024.
A Tuesday poll from Morning Consult and Politico found that only 29% of over 2,000 respondents thought the president should run for reelection, compared to 64% who said he shouldn’t. That comes just days after the New York Times saddled Biden with his lowest approval rating yet, 33%, in a poll that also found 64% of Democrats, including 94% of Democrats under 30, hoping for a new nominee in 2024. The poll did give Biden a slight 3-point advantage over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
Poll respondents pointed to Biden’s age as their chief concern, followed closely by his actual performance thus far as president.
Senior Democratic officials have worried for months that Biden’s inability to advance liberal proposals, ranging from voting rights to an ambitious social spending bill, would drive down turnout among younger voters in particular. Those fears reemerged after Biden’s response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade was deemed by many activists to be wholly insufficient. The names of possible primary challengers began to be bandied about.
Meanwhile, the White House predicted Tuesday that headline inflation would rise to 8.6% for June after months of polling had firmly identified the economy as voters’ top issue heading into the next election.
Trump has similar problems. Fully 61% told Morning Consult that the former GOP president should not run again in 2024, with just 35% believing he should seek another term in the White House.
A second New York Times poll, also published Tuesday morning, found just 49% of Republicans supporting Trump against a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary field including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.