Let’s see if I’ve got this straight. CATS claims ridership of about 16,000 a weekday on the $522m. choo-choo. That’s about 75 percent more than projected, as boosters never tire of pointing out. OK. At minimum, that additional ridership should be throwing off over $1m. in additional annual revenue, assuming an average weighted fare of 60 cents per rider.
Yet CATS will reduce train service in order to save a scant $100,000? Something does not add up. That something is the fact that given the current fare structure, there is no amount of ridership which can provide enough revenue to cover even a fraction of the cost of the operation of the train. This means that if half-cent transit tax revenue falls, even slightly, it will have a direct impact on the amount of service CATS can provide.
More precisely, CATS is giving away train rides basically for free, largely to hoodwink the public and dopey elected officials into believing additional train lines should be built. This brings us to another faux “savings” CATS spat out this week, a less expensive alignment for the $900m. Northeast rail line to UNCC. This will supposedly “save” $57m. as compared to taking the train up the middle of Tryon Street.
Guess what — there was never any choice in this matter. CATS had to reuse the existing rail-bed — the same one followed for two-thirds of the South line — or the cost would’ve been prohibitive. In fact, as we’ve repeatedly said, running the existing train line along the rail-bed to NoDa and declaring victory in Charlotte’s train-building frenzy might make sense. Certainly running a train all the way to UNCC will be the expensive part given the need for multiple bridges to get the train across major roadways.
For now remember the math. We started with an estimate of $750m. for the Northeast line. That climbed to $900m. as the reality of the South line — original fantasy projected cost, $227m. — set in. We now, therefore, should be at a cost of around $840m. for the Northeast line. The struggle will be to come in with an actual engineered estimated cost below a cool one billion.
But whatever the number, the campaign to provide CATS with additional sources of taxpayer revenue will then begin in earnest.
