Narrow Majorities Will Influence Republicans’ Work in D.C.

James Capretta places Republicans’ federal “trifecta” — control of the White House and both chambers of Congress — in perspective.

The media is full of commentary about the power the GOP will hold when it controls both Congress and the White House. What’s been missing is more qualification around what is realistic with such slim majorities.

The GOP wants to move quickly on a major tax-and-spending reconciliation bill because it could be approved in the Senate with a simple majority (thus avoiding any need for Democratic support). But if Republicans write this bill in a way that all Democrats oppose, which is likely, it will be very difficult for it to carry the full Trump agenda.

For instance, Trump has signaled he wants to impose steep tariffs on the importation of all goods but it is highly unlikely that such a step could be approved by the incoming Congress. Scores of business interests will be harmed by broad tariffs, making it near certain to face opposition among some Republicans even if it was paired with popular tax cuts. As an alternative, Trump may move to impose higher tariffs through executive authority tied to national security concerns or claimed abuses by other countries but the legality of such steps will be disputed too.

On tax cuts more generally, many Republicans assume that a straight extension of what passed in 2017 should be relatively easy to approve given the broad support the party gave the original measure. But because the baseline assumes key provisions of the original bill will expire, extending them will widen projected deficits substantially. …

… Some in the GOP are now developing plans to potentially offset some of the planned tax cuts with spending restraint, such as by reforming some means-tested programs. It is possible the party will line up behind these ideas but it is a long shot. If the GOP took this route, Democrats will accuse it of paying for tax cuts for higher-income households by cutting benefits for struggling families. No matter the era, that line of attack tends to sting.