by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
The Republican Party has been trying for a long time to win over more minority voters with limited success. The minority vote is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of remaining in power, which is why they so desperately try to protect it with endless allegations of racism directed at the GOP.
But the Democrats’ virtual monopoly on the minority vote is collapsing. Despite Democrats spending years branding Trump as a racist, his outreach helped bring minorities back to the Republican Party. Those efforts, combined with Joe Biden’s incompetence in the White House, could be the biggest threat to the Democrats’ chances in November and beyond.
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, Republicans maintain a lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot — but that might not be the Democrats’ worst problem. The Democrats’ advantage over Republicans among black voters in the Generic Ballot is only 24%.
According to the poll, 50% of white voters, 31% of black voters, and 42% of voters from other minorities would vote Republican in November, while 55% of black voters, 38% of white voters, and 43% of other minorities said they would vote Democrat. That’s a gap Democrats can’t be comfortable with.
For years, minority voters, particularly black voters, have so consistently voted Democrat that to see numbers like this must scare Democrats down to their core — as it should. The minority shift towards the GOP won’t be unique to this campaign cycle, either, and assuming the GOP continues to make inroads with minority voters, the Democrats’ power in Washington will dwindle.
Margolis doesn’t mention it, but the shift also could have an impact on redistricting litigation. Once black voters are no longer identified so closely with the Democratic Party, it will be harder to Democrats to use that link to win an electoral advantage through the courts.