Editors at Issues and Insights ponder President-elect Donald Trump’s impact and declare “the winning has already begun.”
Under normal circumstances, it takes a year or two before a president can have an impact on the economy or world affairs. But Donald Trump won’t be president for almost two months, and already we are feeling the effects of his election.
Consumers are more confident, manufacturers more optimistic, investors more bullish. Canada is promising to toughen up its border controls. Ukraine is talking about how to end its nearly three-year-long war. There’s a ceasefire in the Middle East.
Heck, even Trump’s favorability rating broke through 50%, a rarity since he first announced his candidacy in 2015. …
… The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index jumped 13.4% in November to 53.2, the highest in more than three years. Anything over 50 indicates a positive for optimism, and this is the first time the index has been positive since September 2021.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was up 2.1 points in November and “reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” according to chief economist Dana Peterson, who added that “the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022.”
Manufacturers are more upbeat. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says, “The mood among U.S. manufacturers brightened in November (and) optimism about the year ahead has improved to a level not beaten in two and a half years, buoyed by the … prospect of stronger economic growth.”
Investors are more hopeful about the future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7% since Nov. 4, as is the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 is up 6% “as investors cheer the president-elect’s plans to cut taxes and deregulate,” notes Bloomberg.
This can’t be dismissed as meaningless emotionalism. Those who are optimistic about tomorrow are more likely to take risks, invest, and spend today — spurring real growth.
