While the experts can make predictions, no one really knows how the 2010 federal health care reform law is going to impact people and businesses, even though full implementation is scheduled to take effect next year. An article in the latest Bloomberg Businessweek emphasizes the uncertainty.

Andrew Matroni, owner of Queen City Catering in Charlotte, N.C., had no idea whether he’d have to buy a health plan next year for his 15 employees or face fines under the Affordable Care Act. At a March 28 panel hosted by the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, he was relieved to learn he’s in the clear. “There are a lot of rumors out there,” Matroni says. “The biggest one: All businesses would need to do this or be penalized. I think that’s just a scare for everyone.”

Three years after Obamacare became law and less than nine months before its biggest reforms take effect, many employers still don’t grasp its basic elements. “They’re completely befuddled with who is subject to the penalty and what they’re going to have to pay,” says Craig Hasday, chief operating officer of Frenkel Benefits, a New York City insurance broker. Beginning in 2014, companies that don’t offer insurance face penalties of up to $2,000 per employee. This mandate applies only to businesses with 50 or more people who work upwards of 30 hours a week. That makes 96 percent of employers exempt. Yet a majority of business owners with fewer than 50 workers believe the mandate applies to them, according to a recent survey of 259 companies by online insurance marketplace EHealth.

Large businesses are concerned about fines, too. Those who comply with the mandate can still be fined if their plans cost workers more than 9.5 percent of their income, or if their insurance doesn’t cover at least 60 percent of medical costs. “Not doing this correctly could have staggering penalties,” with some companies potentially owing tens of millions, says David Marini, vice president of strategic advisory services at payroll provider ADP. That’s a real concern for big employers with low-wage workers, such as restaurant and retail chains that often offer skimpy coverage. But Frenkel’s Hasday also says he talks to clients that offer rich benefits, like law firms, who don’t realize their plans will pass muster. “Everyone at the end of the day thinks they’re going to pay money,” he says.