At the election futures market at Intrade.com, the current Bid/Ask on the GOP retaining control of the U.S. House is at 45.1/45.9 cents. That is up about ten cents since last week, although it’s down a bit since June. By way of comparison, the Bid/Ask on the GOP retaining control of the U.S. Senate is 84.0/84.1 cents.
What this means, basically, is that investors speculating with their own money are betting that the GOP will retain control of the Senate but not the House. The Bid/Ask price corresponds to confidence levels in the scenario ? anything higher than 50 cents suggests that the scenario is a winner (the greater than 50 cents, the more likely a winning scenario ? 50 cents suggests the perceived likelihood of winning or losing is equal).
