A Republican-aligned polling firm gives a 16-percentage point lead to state Rep. Lorene Coates, D-Rowan, over her Republican foe Harry Warren. The poll is significant because Coates’ district, House 77, is in the “swing” category this year.

Analysis from Carolina Strategy Group:

While the initial ballot looks encouraging for Rep. Coates, political observers should expect this race to tighten as the year progresses. The strength of Coates?s support can be found among self-described liberal and moderate voters. She leads Warren by a margin of 78 percent to 9 percent among liberals and 59 percent to 18 percent among moderates.

These numbers flip among conservative voters. Warren outpaces Coates by a margin of 63 percent to 23 percent. Overall, 39 percent of voters described themselves as conservatives, 34 percent said they were moderates and 20 percent said they were liberals.

For Carolina Journal‘s coverage of the House 77 Republican primary, click here.