Poll Shows People Believe We’re In Recession, Government Deserves Blame

Terry Jones of Issues and Insights reports on new polling data related to the nation’s economic outlook.

While the big media and some economists might disagree, a majority of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is now in a recession, the latest I&I/TIPP data show. And voters, when asked what caused it, are clear in their response: Government.

Recently, a number of government economists, including Fed chief Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, along with non-economist President Joe Biden, have suggested that, despite two quarterly declines in U.S. GDP, the country is not in a recession.

“What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle,” a blog from the White House Council of Economic Advisers noted in a typical response, calling a recession “unlikely.”

Well, most Americans don’t agree.

A recent IBD/TIPP Poll, for instance, found that fully 62% believe the U.S. is in recession, including a tri-partisan majority of Democrats (51%), Republicans (74%), and independents (56%). That compares to an overall 18% who say the economy isn’t in a recession, and 20% who say they’re “not sure.” Other polls concur. …

… One thing is clear: The current recession is unique in that the U.S. and other countries intentionally brought them on by locking down their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

And that can clearly be seen in the I&I/TIPP Poll’s second question, which we asked of the 826 people who believe the U.S. is in a recession: “What caused the recession?”

We offered seven possible responses.

The top three in terms of percentages included: “Too much government spending” (58%), “President Biden and Congress” (53%), and “COVID lockdowns and masking policies” (53%).

Other responses included “‘Woke’ policies of business and government” (35%), “too many regulations” (29%) and “Federal Reserve policy” (28%), with an additional 11% saying they were “not sure.”