Based upon Small Community Air Service Development Program grant requests and news reports, the following cities seem interested in adding flights to Charlotte:
• Springfield, MO (Airport code: SGF). Got a $450,000 SCASD grant in 2013 for a “revenue guarantee with marketing to establish new air service to Charlotte.” Haven’t heard more since then. Existing service is on Delta to Atlanta, Chicago and Denver on United, and Chicago and Dallas on American. CLT-SGF was a $4,082 market in 3Q2013 (13.2 passengers a day total at an average one-way fare of $310,26)
Analysis: Springfield is a second-tier Midwest destination. It’s relatively far (708 miles) and relatively small (about the 10th largest unserved market within 1,000 miles or so of Charlotte) to where whether the route begins and then survives is questionable.
• Peoria, IL (PIA): Asking for but didn’t get $500,000 in federal money in 2014 to go with $600,000 in airport cash and $145,000 in airport in-kind contribution to help persuade the existing carriers at the airport to add a new route or routes. The airport mentions six hubs that Peoria currently lacks flights to that the airport is targeting: Charlotte and Philadelphia (American Airlines); Newark and Washington Dulles (United); and New York City’s La Guardia and John F. Kennedy (Delta). Existing service is Chicago and Dallas on American, Chicago and Denver on United, and Atlanta, Detroit, and Minneapolis on Delta. In 3Q2013, CLT-PIA was a $3,733 market ($252.55 average one-way fare with 14.8 passengers a day on average).
Analysis: Another typical second-tier Midwest destination. Peoria is between Bloomington and Moline, and also sees travelers drive to St. Louis and Chicago. American does well there. The real question is which (if any) of Cedar Rapids, IA, Moline, Peoria, and Bloomington eventually get a flight to CLT, as it’s unlikely to be all of them, and the four markets are all arranged kind of in a line. Peoria probably isn’t the most likely of those markets to get a CLT flight, as Cedar Rapids and Moline are currently stronger markets to Charlotte though further away ($6,159 and $5,384 respectively in 3Q2013).
• Shreveport, LA (SHV): Asked for but did not get for $500,000 in 2014 in federal money to go along with $200,000 in airport money and $50,000 in airport in-kind contributions to attract service to more destinations. Cities mentioned are Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C. SHV currently has service on United to Denver and Houston while American flies to Dallas and Delta flies to Atlanta from there. In 3Q2013, CLT-SHV was a $3,262 a day market ($267.93 average one-way fare with 12.2 passengers a day).
Analysis: CLT is among the more likely future destinations from Shreveport. You can read my analysis from 2010 of second-tier southeastern destinations, which found Shreveport by reference to Delta’s offers from Atlanta, too small. Things have gotten better for Shreveport since, with Delta offering 360 seats a day come March, up from 250 in 2010. That’s still a bit marginal for CLT-SHV to work, though with the merger, two flights a day is possible. The main drawback is still that it’s 764 miles from SHV to CLT.
• Columbia, MO (Airport code: COU) Springfield isn’t the only city in Missouri in adding flights to Charlotte. From the Columbia Tribune of Nov. 23, 2014:
Within American’s network, which has expanded since last year following the air service provider’s merger with U.S. Airways, the consultants list Charlotte, N.C., and Philadelphia as the top two hub opportunities. Greg Cecil, chairman of the city’s Airport Advisory Board, called Charlotte the “most likely candidate.”
“That opens up a whole bunch of doors for us,” Cecil said.
Charlotte, the consultants said, would give Columbia easier access to connections with fellow Southeastern Conference cities and the Caribbean and “should be explored in more detail.” Philadelphia would provide better connections to Europe, but is a “fairly long trip” for a regional jet to make, the consultants said, and less overall revenue potential than Charlotte.
Analysis: COU has two flights a day each on American to Dallas and Chicago. By spring, they’ll be on 65-seat regional gets. That’s it. Unsurprisingly, Columbia has never hit the 5 passenger a day each way threshold to make the typical DOT data pull. So while the logic of Columbus recognizing Charlotte as their next logical destination, CLT is really a bridge too far for them.
• Columbus, GA (CGS): Got $750,000 in federal money in 2014 to go along with $25,000 in airport cash and $175,000 in non-airport cash plus in-kind contributions to start service to Charlotte.
Analysis: The airline’s only existing air service is on Delta to Atlanta with three or flights a day depending upon the season on 50-seat regional jets. While the amount of money makes this route likely, whether it is sustainable is questionable.
Bonus thought: Notice the typical service patterns for Midwest cities and the lack of flights to the major Northeastern cities (New York, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia). Yes, that’s an issue to those communities. I could imagine more flight additions in the future like what happened with Ft. Wayne, IN, where US Airways recently started service with three flights to Philly and a Charlotte flight. Still, adding new domestic destinations from CLT is going to happen sporadically, and will at times be tied to federal grants. (That’s just the way things work circa 2014/2015 — not a reflection of the wisdom of SCASD program, which I think is absurd.)