The Foley scandal appears to have significantly altered traders’ expectations of the election results. The elections futures market at Intrade.com right now (see Politics) has the Bid/Ask for GOP retaining control of the House at 40.0/40.5 cents (significantly down since my last post on the matter) and for the GOP retaining control of the Senate at 67.2/67.5 (also much less confident than where it has been).
Essentially, this is saying that as of right now, the smart money’s on the Democrats taking over the House and the GOP retaining the Senate ? but there is much less confidence in the GOP retaining the Senate than there has been.
