March 18, 2007
RALEIGH – Future road congestion could threaten North Carolina’s economy, and Fayetteville deserves just a C+ grade in preparing for congestion growth. That’s according to a new Policy Report from the John Locke Foundation and Reason Foundation.
Twelve of the state’s 17 metropolitan regions earned higher grades than Fayetteville. Asheville, Goldsboro, and Jacksonville topped the list with A- grades. Charlotte earned a D, the state’s worst grade.
“Overall, the Fayetteville region’s congestion planning is superior to that in many areas in North Carolina,” said study author David Hartgen, Professor of Transportation Studies at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “The weaknesses of the program, as we see it, are its failure to quantify the impacts of projects presently on the books, its overly optimistic treatment of transit and other modes, the lack of a quantified measure for congestion regionwide that can be tracked over time to determine progress, limited attention to demand management techniques, and the failure to demonstrate that fiscal resources will be adequate to fund major projects.”
Congestion in North Carolina will more than double over the next 25 years, and Fayetteville’s congestion delay will triple, Hartgen said. “Charlotte drivers will face the same type of traffic delays Chicago drivers face now. Raleigh’s delay will nearly double, to present-day Minneapolis levels. Even smaller cities like Rocky Mount will see a significant increase in traffic delays.”
State and local planners are not targeting enough transportation dollars toward reducing those delays, said Hartgen, a JLF adjunct policy analyst. “That increased congestion threatens the state’s economic future,” he said. “Yet many regions have ignored the problem and propose spending limited transportation funds on ineffective projects that will not likely affect congestion.”
The new study builds on a 2006 report Hartgen prepared for the Los Angeles-based Reason Foundation, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization founded in 1968 that advances a free society by developing, applying, and promoting libertarian principles, including individual liberty, free markets, and the rule of law.
The Reason report showed traffic delays would increase by 65 percent across the United States by 2030. North Carolina needs to spend $12.4 billion to clear congested urban roads and prepare for traffic growth in the next 25 years, according to that report.
For his new report, Hartgen reviewed more than 1,300 specific transportation projects planned for each North Carolina region’s transportation plan. Hartgen evaluated each project based on its likely impact on congestion relief, then compared that impact to the congestion growth forecast for the region.
Some regions are devoting too little money to the congestion problem, Hartgen said. The state’s largest regions are spending significant chunks of transportation funding on transit instead.
“In the Charlotte region, 43 percent of available dollars are proposed for highway projects, and the road improvements proposed would alleviate only one-third of the predicted increase in congestion,” he said. “Raleigh and Durham are allocating 73 percent and 49 percent, respectively, of their dollars to effective projects. Fayetteville proposes to spend $2.35 billion, of which about 8 percent would be for transit. But transit carries just 0.8 percent of commuters.”
Programs in other communities were judged more effective. Those plans often had enough savings to relieve congestion, if targeted at the right projects.
North Carolina does not need new funding to address the congestion problem, Hartgen said. “The report recommends using existing planned funds for congestion relief,” he said. “In some cities, ‘balance’ in transportation funding needs to be redefined. Instead of saying that transit programs should get 20-50 percent of funds, modes of transportation should get funds in proportion to their demand.”
Hartgen’s report offers nearly 20 recommendations for the state and more than a dozen recommendations for the Fayetteville region. Local recommendations include: ensuring adequate funding for major projects; conducting a bottleneck analysis; starting a regional ridesharing program, vanpool, and express bus programs with distant communities; lowering the focus on local transit, pedestrian, and bike projects; and reviewing the potential for financing through tolls.
The statewide proposals include: changing the highway distribution formulas to account for congestion; appointing “congestion tsars” and establishing congestion reduction programs for each region; using innovative highway and intersection designs; increasing the weight placed on congestion in selecting projects; implementing flex-time, ridesharing, and work-at-home programs; removing bottlenecks; improving intersection turns and signal systems; expanding incident management programs; using tolls and public-private partnerships; and planning land use and transportation capacity jointly.
The state cannot afford to ignore growing congestion problems, Hartgen said. “North Carolina is not generally recognized as one of the most congested states, but it is,” he said. “My recent national assessment ranked North Carolina 48th among the 50 states in urban interstate congestion.”
“Pulled by competing priorities, many communities appear to be focusing largely on other objectives and are de-emphasizing the congestion problem,” Hartgen added. “Refocusing efforts on relieving congestion could have a major economic impact by saving travel time. The report estimates the value of travel time saved at about $855 million annually.”
David Hartgen’s Policy Report, “Traffic Congestion in North Carolina: Status, Prospects, and Solutions,” is available at the JLF web site. For more information, please contact Hartgen at (704) 687-5917 or [email protected]. To arrange an interview, contact Mitch Kokai at (919) 306-8736 or [email protected].