November 7, 2025

RALEIGH — The Locke Foundation is proud to announce the release of its 2026 Civitas Partisan Index (CPI), a data-driven look at how each legislative district in the state leans politically before campaigns begin. The index provides a clear picture of the state’s electoral landscape as prospective candidates prepare to enter their races. It is particularly timely as candidate filing for the 2026 election begins on December 1.

The Civitas Partisan Index measures the underlying partisan tendencies of each North Carolina legislative district, comparing recent election results to the statewide average. Using precinct-level data from nine 2024 Council of State races, the CPI assigns every district a score such as “R+6” or “D+4” to indicate how much more Republican or Democratic it is relative to the state overall. Districts are then categorized as safe, likely, lean, or toss-up based on the strength of that partisan advantage.

“The Civitas Partisan Index is a baseline measure that helps voters, journalists, and candidates understand the political character of each district,” said Dr. Andy Jackson, who drafted the 2026 CPI. “It doesn’t predict individual races, but it shows where each party starts as the 2026 election cycle gets underway.”

In the state Senate, the CPI finds 16 safe Democratic seats, one likely Democratic, two lean Democratic, three toss-ups, three lean Republican, nine likely Republican, and 16 safe Republican districts. Republicans begin with 25 likely or safe seats—and would need only one additional seat among the remaining lean and toss-up districts to maintain control.

In the state House, there are 37 safe Democratic seats, six likely Democratic, four lean Democratic, seven toss-ups, 15 lean Republican, 10 likely Republican, and 41 safe Republican districts. Republicans start with 51 likely or safe seats, while Democrats would need to win every toss-up district and make significant inroads into Republican-leaning territory to gain a majority.

The 2026 CPI continues to serve as an independent benchmark for understanding North Carolina’s political map. In 2024, CPI ratings accurately reflected the outcomes in 98.8 percent of legislative races with an assigned partisan lean, underscoring the index’s value as an analytical tool rather than a forecast model.

The full Civitas Partisan Index for both the North Carolina House and Senate is available for download HERE.