March 18, 2007

RALEIGH – Future road congestion could threaten North Carolina’s economy, but two southeastern N.C. cities earn high marks for plans to fight traffic delays. That’s according to a new Policy Report from the John Locke Foundation and Reason Foundation.

Wilmington earned a B+ grade, while Jacksonville earned an A-. Among the state’s 17 metropolitan regions, only Asheville and Goldsboro matched Jacksonville for the state’s highest grade. Greensboro, Greenville, and High Point matched Wilmington’s B+ grade. In contrast, Charlotte earned a D, the state’s worst grade.

“The Wilmington region has the potential, within its current transportation plans, to hold congestion at approximately current levels,” said study author David Hartgen, Professor of Transportation Studies at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “Of course, this assessment presumes that the projects are actually implemented and are effective in speeding and smoothing traffic flow.”

Jacksonville’s plan also has room for improvement, Hartgen said. “The strengths of the plan are its initial identification of congested locations and particularly its projection of what congestion will be like after the long-range plan is implemented; its attention to key arterial widening and intersection treatments; and its attention to completion of the bypass,” he said. “The weaknesses of the program are its inordinate attention to transit, its failure to specify benefits of recommended projects, limited attention to demand management, and – most importantly – the too-close balance between the cost of the plan and congestion-reduction needs.”

Congestion in North Carolina will more than double over the next 25 years, and congestion delays in Wilmington and Jacksonville will more than double, Hartgen said. “Charlotte drivers will face the same type of traffic delays Chicago drivers face now. Raleigh’s delay will nearly double, to present-day Minneapolis levels. Even smaller cities like Rocky Mount will see a significant increase in traffic delays.”

State and local planners are not targeting enough transportation dollars toward reducing those delays, said Hartgen, a JLF adjunct policy analyst. “That increased congestion threatens the state’s economic future,” he said. “Yet many regions have ignored the problem and propose spending limited transportation funds on ineffective projects that will not likely affect congestion.”

The new study builds on a 2006 report Hartgen prepared for the Los Angeles-based Reason Foundation, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization founded in 1968 that advances a free society by developing, applying, and promoting libertarian principles, including individual liberty, free markets, and the rule of law.

The Reason report showed traffic delays would increase by 65 percent across the United States by 2030. North Carolina needs to spend $12.4 billion to clear congested urban roads and prepare for traffic growth in the next 25 years, according to that report.

For his new report, Hartgen reviewed more than 1,300 specific transportation projects planned for each North Carolina region’s transportation plan. Hartgen evaluated each project based on its likely impact on congestion relief, then compared that impact to the congestion growth forecast for the region.

North Carolina does not need new funding to address the congestion problem, Hartgen said. “The report recommends using existing planned funds for congestion relief,” he said. “In some cities, ‘balance’ in transportation funding needs to be redefined. Instead of saying that transit programs should get 20-50 percent of funds, modes of transportation should get funds in proportion to their demand.”

Hartgen’s report offers nearly 20 recommendations for the state and many targeted recommendations for the Wilmington and Jacksonville regions. Wilmington proposes to spend $1.38 billion over 25 years; 13 percent would be for transit service. Transit serves only 0.9 percent of the region’s commuters. Wilmington recommendations include: increasing the mix of projects on the arterial system; moving up the signal optimization program; conducting a bottleneck analysis; and considering reversible lanes or shoulder use.

Jacksonville’s plan would spend $727 million over 25 years. That includes about 5.1 percent for its transit system, which carries just 0.8 percent of commuters. Jacksonville recommendations include: firming up the availability of funds for major projects; completing the U.S. 17 bypass; implementing intersection improvement and signal optimization plans; and developing a truck route plan.

The statewide proposals include: changing the highway distribution formulas to account for congestion; appointing “congestion tsars” and establishing congestion reduction programs for each region; using innovative highway and intersection designs; increasing the weight placed on congestion in selecting projects; implementing flex-time, ridesharing, and work-at-home programs; removing bottlenecks; improving intersection turns and signal systems; expanding incident management programs; using tolls and public-private partnerships; and planning land use and transportation capacity jointly.

The state cannot afford to ignore growing congestion problems, Hartgen said. “North Carolina is not generally recognized as one of the most congested states, but it is,” he said. “My recent national assessment ranked North Carolina 48th among the 50 states in urban interstate congestion.”

“Pulled by competing priorities, many communities appear to be focusing largely on other objectives and are de-emphasizing the congestion problem,” Hartgen added. “Refocusing efforts on relieving congestion could have a major economic impact by saving travel time. The report estimates the value of travel time saved at about $855 million annually.”

David Hartgen’s Policy Report, “Traffic Congestion in North Carolina: Status, Prospects, and Solutions,” is available at the JLF web site. For more information, please contact Hartgen at (704) 687-5917 or [email protected]. To arrange an interview, contact Mitch Kokai at (919) 306-8736 or [email protected].