I checked my notes from Ramesh Ponneru’s Shaftesbury Society visit last September, and found this (edited for clarity):

But what does the GOP face after the election? Has the national opinion of big government shifted leftward? Compassionate Conservatism has not worked well so far. Should we assume GWB is a proponent of big government? No, he’s just responding to electoral reality; Medicare prescriptions were going to pass somehow. Steven Forbes thought the GOP needs to try and shift public thought toward smaller government.

Conclusion: Try to build a mandate – but expect bad domestic stuff from the second term.

That’s what I fully expect. I like the President, supported him strongly, but now that he’s safely elected, the conservative wing of the party needs to mount the next campaign — for limited government, particularly in these extra-Constitutional areas our leadership seems prone to expand. It’s too early to pick the nominee presumptive, but we sure need to get rolling with the issues side of the ticket.