Paul,

You’re right that a number of national political pundits have come around to the notion that North Carolina’s primary is at least as important as Pennsylvania’s, if not more so, in deciding the Democratic race.

There’s another trend in the commentary that is also interesting: plenty of number-crunchers, from Michael Barone to many less-famous ones, have published plausible scenarios in which Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote by the end of the primary season. That gives her a shot at convincing the superdelegates to come around, particularly if things go the way blogger Sean Oxendine sketches out in a lengthy, fascinating post. The conclusion, after assuming a moderate Obama win in NC and Clinton victories in Indiana, Kentucky, Indiana, and Puerto Rico:

All told, this gives Hillary around a 100K margin of victory, using
Obama’s best count system (use caucus estimates, don’t us FL or MI). In
truth, I think the best system credits FL — both were on the ballot,
neither campaigned, and even though the delegates don’t count, the
votes were still cast. Under this count, she wins by almost a half
million votes — exactly Gore’s popular vote win over Bush.

And therein lies the rub. Are the Democrats, who still feel
victimized by 2000, going to go with the person who very narrowly won
the bizarre system of delegate allocations? Who won because of Texas’
primacaucus, and the refusal to seat FL and MI?

But then again, are they going to not nominate the AA who won the
most delegates? Or will they gamble on the notion that AAs will still
turn out Democrat, or will at worst stay home, while the women and blue
collar Dems who supported Hillary might really vote for McCain?

It’s a mess for Democrats under that scenario. I don’t know what the
Superdelegates will do. Heck, we don’t even know who all the
Superdelegates are at this point! But she has a reasonable pathway to
get to this point. And once she gets there, it is anybody’s ballgame.

(BTW, also note that calling for her to drop out before PA, PR, KY
and WV vote would be akin to asking Obama to drop out because he was
trailing with GA, AL, and MS yet to vote. It’s cutting her off before
literally her best states vote).

As I’ve said many times, I believe that the Clintons aren’t going to settle for losing to Obama in NC by 10-12 points. They want the margin to be very close, and have hopes of a come-from-behind stunner. That’s why they are blanketing the state, and why she just started a major TV buy today.

The Clintons are far from quitting.