This is as good a time as any to post this, in light of Joe’s post below.

The picture is rather murky as viewed by traders in “election futures” as to whether the GOP will retain control of the U.S. House. At TradeSports.com and InTrade.com, the Bid is 49.6 cents and the Ask is at 50.3 cents, with the last bid going at exactly 50.0 cents. Essentially, the higher the prices are above 50 cents, the more confident people betting their own money are that the event in question will happen. This tends to be a better predictor of political results than polls.

For what it’s worth, traders are fairly confident right now of the GOP retaining control of the U.S. Senate: 78.3 Bid, 79.0 Ask.