Karen’s post is an important one. There are too many data points out there suggesting that charter schools in North Carolina and possibly Texas are not generating the gains relative to public schools than charters in other states are producing. Occam’s Razor cuts here, I think.

However, it slashes both ways. It cannot be a coincidence that the charter-school effect is the weakest in the two states, NC and TX, that have posted the strongest percentage-point gains for district-run public schools on national assessments since the mid-1990s. Because the gains are also evident (if not exaggerated) in the annual state tests in both places, what could actually be going on is that improving performance in public schools is swamping whatever positive effect the charters in those states may be having.

If the NBER paper is correct, one might attribute some of the public-school surge to charter-school competition. Most of the surge would have to be due to something else, though, it seems to me, given that there aren’t enough charters to offer meaningful competition to district-run schools across the state.