James Capretta argues at National Review Online that it’s “crunch time” for those who want to get rid of the federal Affordable Care Act.
House and Senate leaders deserve a lot of credit for putting together a bill that repeals much of Obamacare and skillfully navigating it through both chambers using the budget-reconciliation process. That’s no small achievement, though President Obama is sure to veto the bill as soon as it reaches his desk.
But it’s likely to be only a partial preview of what could happen in 2017 — if a Republican wins the White House. It is telling that the bill Congress is poised to send to President Obama delays repeal of Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and health-insurance subsidies for two years. That way, Republican senators could promise their constituents that a replacement for Obamacare would be put in place before the federal funding for their plans was withdrawn. If there is an opportunity to repeal Obamacare in 2017, these senators (and many House members too) will want to include the replacement provisions in the same legislation rolling back Obamacare.
That’s also likely to be the case for a Republican president in 2017. Obamacare is unstable, and full of problems, but that does not mean returning to the pre-Obamacare status quo will be an attractive option for a newly elected president. A Republican president will want to put in place a program that is better than Obamacare. That means providing access to health-care coverage that is better than Medicaid or what is offered on the exchanges. House speaker Paul Ryan understands this. He pledged this week that the House will take up and pass a plan to replace Obamacare next year. Passing a bill in the House would force more compromise among different factions on a precise replacement plan and lay the groundwork for legislative action in 2017.
