Weekly John Locke Foundation research division newsletter focusing on environmental issues.
The newsletter highlights relevant analysis done by the JLF and other think tanks as well as items in the news.
1. Sea Level Rise Prediction and NC’s Regulatory Reform Law
By now most people are aware of the prediction made by the NC Coastal Resource Commission’s Science Panel on Coastal Hazards that sea level rise along NC’s coast will be 39 inches over the next 88 years. A point that I have made in recent weeks, both in blog posts and in this newsletter, is that this prediction is not particularly useful as a guide to public policy, which should be based on rigorous cost/benefit analysis. This is because there is not a probability statistic that is associated with this prediction. Neither the costs associated with a future event nor the benefits associated with policies meant to either prevent or adapt to the event can be determined without an estimate of the likelihood that the event will occur.
Recently there has been considerable debate about whether the 39-inch prediction should be used as a basis for determining land use regulatory policies along North Carolina’s coast. But it seems that this discussion, even among legislators, is missing a very important point. According to the Regulatory Reform Act of 2011, new regulations require estimates of costs and benefits before they can be adopted. Here is what the law states:
Each agency shall quantify the costs and benefits to all parties of a proposed rule to the greatest extent possible. Prior to submission of a proposed rule for publication in accordance with G.S. 150B‑21.2…
In this case, DENR is the agency in question, and what DENR in fact needs to do is send the Commission back to the drawing board to come up with a prediction that will allow them to formulate new rules in compliance with North Carolina’s legislative requirements. As of now, the prediction of the commission cannot be used in a way that complies with the law.
2. Ozone Report
The heat this week has taken its toll on ozone levels. All but 2 of the state’s 40 ozone monitors registered at least 1 high ozone reading or what ozone watchers call an exceedance — a monitor reading that exceeds EPA standards.
The 2012 ozone season began on April 1 and each week during the ozone season this newsletter reports how many, if any, high ozone days have been experienced throughout the state during the previous week, where they were experienced, and how many have been recorded during the entire season to date. The ozone season will end on October 31. All reported data is from the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, which is part of the state’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
During the period June 25 to July 1 there were 71 reported high ozone readings over 4 days on monitors across the state. The greatest numbers of high ozone readings over the 4 day period were recorded in Person, Guilford, Yancey, Davie, Forsyth, Rockingham, Rowan, Haywood, and Mecklenburg counties. One or more monitors in each of these counties recorded 3 exceedances. Since the beginning of the ozone season there have been 75 high ozone readings on North Carolina monitors.
Click here for the Environmental Update archive.
