In continuing to insist, in the wake of the Edwards Veep selection, that President Bush and the Republicans remain safe in North Carolina and the rest of the South, many pundits here and elsewhere are offering up some strange and revisionist history. For example, they argue that Southern voters haven’t really been up for grabs for Democrats since Jimmy Carter’s win in 1976. The reality is that several states in the Southern periphery voted for the Clinton-Gore ticket. North Carolina almost did in 1992. In 2000, Bush won several Southern and border state by small margins. And before the Edwards pick this week, Bush and Kerry were close in Florida and Arkansas, with Bush posting relatively weak leads in North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Louisiana.
No, Kerry-Edwards has no chance in most of the Deep South or in Texas. So what? The goal is to add another couple of states to the Democratic column, which is enough for victory if Kerry-Edwards keeps all or nearly all of the states that Gore-Lieberman won in 2000. For all the talk about how the race will be won in the Midwest, few are noticing that most of the Midwestern states on the battleground list voted for Gore. Keeping them is necessary but insufficient. The Dems have to take states away from the GOP. To do that, they need to force Bush to defend more territory, which is what the Edwards pick is supposed to help to accomplish.
I’m not saying it will work. But there?s no point pretending that it can?t.
