Editors at National Review Online see danger signs ahead for the Democratic Party.

To the extent that Democrats are still banking on Latino voters to carry them to durable national majorities, the result in Tuesday’s special election in the Texas 34th congressional district should be an alarm bell. Joe Biden carried TX-34 by four points in 2020; Filemon Vela, the incumbent Democratic congressman, won it by 13.6. But Vela resigned to work for a lobbying firm in March, triggering a special election to finish out his term — and this time, voters in the South Texas district opted for the Republican candidate by more than seven and a half points.

Mayra Flores, the district’s 36-year-old congresswoman-elect, is the first Republican to win the area in more than 150 years and will be the first Mexican-born congresswoman in American history. When up for election again in November, she will face an uphill battle. The special election occurred in TX-34’s pre-redistricting boundaries, but the November election will be held in a post-redistricting electorate that is more favorable to Democrats — and Flores will be running against a Democratic incumbent for the seat.

But regardless of Flores’s fate this November, her Tuesday night victory portends a major shift in the American political landscape. A whopping 85 percent of the residents in TX-34 are Hispanic, according to 2020 census data. Just 13 percent are white. The district, like much of South Texas, has long been a Democratic stronghold: Biden carried Cameron County, the most populous county in the district, by 13 points in 2020. On Tuesday, Flores won Cameron by about one point.

For months, poll after poll has presaged a rapid rightward shift among Hispanics. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the border communities of South Texas, which have pivoted toward the GOP in overwhelming numbers over the course of the last few years.