Well, here we go. You can’t say for certain in advance what issues will make-or-break a political showdown, but I think it is safe to say whomever wins this one will have a big leg up come 2012. Bev Perdue has made clear now that she will stand or fall with the teachers and public sector employees. And the GOP leadership, with a swift Senate override of Perdue’s veto seems to be doubling down.

The mystery is Thom Tillis. The Speaker seems to be suggesting here that he wants to drop to zero the amount state employees pay for basic health care premiums, then require them to kick in for higher grades of coverage. But such a preemptive surrender removes all principle from the principled stand that state employees should not be exempt from the real world.

So, in sum, this could still go either way.