It has evidently fallen to me to do some basic math, which should scare the hell out of all concerned. The resulting numbers should merely drive you to drink. More.
One quarter ago, we took a look at the housing trends and said that by the end of Q2 of 09 the average home sales price in the seven-county Charlotte region would be around $178,000, down from $233,000 in November 2007. Now the latest numbers are out and they suggest that prices are falling even faster than that.
The average sales price already stands at $182K down 3.2 percent from last month. At that rate by mid-year the average sales price will be hitting $170,000, or about 4.5 percent lower than we guessed just last December. OK, now for the really scary part.
Should prices continue to fall at the same rate for all of 2009 — and remember, we are just now hearing the consensus economic opinion starting to back off a mid-year turn, backtracking in many cases to Q1 of 2010 — the average local sales price will stand at ….. $134,225.
This would be a 42 percent drop from the average price of November 2007. As you pick your jaw up off the floor, understand this may not happen. It might even be unlikely to happen. But such a drop damn sure could happen and to ignore the possibility as homeowner, head of family, businessperson, local official, or politician is irresponsible in the extreme.
Of course, not all areas would see such a drop. Some places are more apt to hold their value than others, that should go without saying. But the obvious has not be said lo these many months, except for we naysayers, kooks, and cranks.
