In this Roll Call column, Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report outlines the challenge faced by President Obama’s re-election campaign if they hope to put North Carolina in his column again. Rothenberg concludes it’s not likely. The column begins with Rothenberg analyzing the Democrats’ decision to hold the nominating convention in Charlotte.
If national Democratic strategists chose Charlotte, N.C., for the party’s national convention because they liked the facilities, the hotel accommodations or the weather in early September, then I guess I can’t yet quibble with the choice.
But if David Axelrod and the president’s other political advisers picked the Tar Heel State to make some broader political point, then they goofed.
Simply put: North Carolina looks like a mess for Democrats.
Later, Rothenberg writes this:
For months, I’ve been including the Tar Heel State in my list of swing territory. I think I’ve been wrong to do so, no matter what current polling shows.
Unless the president wins re-election nationally by 7 or 8 points (or about what he did in 2008), his chances of carrying the state are not very good. And if he wins nationally by a large margin, he won’t need North Carolina.
Obama won North Carolina by three-tenths of a point four years ago — almost 7 points worse than his national margin of 7.2 points.
This election is about economic policies, plain and simple. The president’s challenge is to convince voters to give him another four years to lead the country back to fiscal health. Will the nearly 10% of North Carolinians who are currently without a job think that’s a reasonable request? Stay tuned.
