Should we be surprised that this year’s student enrollment increases have been smaller than projected? Not really. Unfortunately, public school superintendents have convinced taxpayers and the media that their school systems will experience unabated enrollment growth for the next twenty years. Fear keeps the money rolling in.

Many school districts in central Florida were adding 6,000 or more students a year, but this year, many high growth school systems added less than 1,000 students. Like school officials here, Floridians cannot explain why public school enrollment has slowed, but they suspect that rising housing prices, dwindling job opportunities, and hurricane fears may be to blame. Educational choice and tax increases definitely play a role.

There are signs that North Carolina may eventually follow in Florida’s footsteps. As North Carolina continues to create an environment that is hostile to taxpayers (think sales and land transfer taxes) and businesses (unless you make tires), we may continue to see smaller enrollment increases in many of our largest school systems.