It has arrived. But what will happen?
Scott Elliott, the Blogging Caesar, has some predictions over at Election Projection:
1. On the Republican side, a big day for McCain, he says.
John McCain will be the big winner. He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida – plus he enjoys a structural advantage. … It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. … I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%.
2. For the Democrats, a close one all the way:
On the Democratic side, the fact that every state awards proportionally will make it difficult for either Obama or Hillary to gain an overwhelming delegate advantage. In fact, I don’t see either candidate earning more than 55% of the delegates to be awarded today. Looking at the polling data, I would say Obama will get 25 to 75 more delegates than Hillary.
