The state’s budget writers don’t know which situation they’ll face as they start tweaking the state’s next $20 billion spending plan.

Through the first half of the year, the state had collected about $125 million more than expected. (Listen to the third segment of this edition of Carolina Journal Radio to hear what legislative analyst Barry Boardman said about the state’s finances earlier this year.) But the latest numbers from the General Assembly’s Fiscal Research Division indicate tax revenues are now running much closer to projections.

The picture should be clearer once the state compiles April 15 tax numbers.