As the results in the surprisingly close Wisconsin primary trickled in last night, the exit polls in the state demonstrate another surprise. Despite all the buzz about John Edwards connecting with the downtrodden and mobilizing the disaffected with his neo-protectionist, mill-town routine, John Kerry (44 percent) was actually preferred over Edwards (34 percent) among voters who said their family’s financial situation was “worse than it was four years ago.” Among voters reporting a better financial situation this year than in 2000, Edwards led by 38 percent to 29 percent. Edwards also did better among those with higher incomes, college or postgraduate educations, suburbanites, and self-identified moderates and conservatives. Kerry was the preference of poorer, less-educated, liberals, and more rural voters.
Basically, it looks like Edwards got some crossover votes in an open primary. He’s spinning this as evidence he can appeal to a broader section of the general-election electorate than Kerry can. Another possibility, though, is that mainstream Democrats already resigned to a Kerry nomination just didn’t show up, while some independents and Republicans did.
The bad news for Edwards is that most of the upcoming contests, including on Super Tuesday next month, are not open primaries. Independents may like him better than they like Kerry ? I’ll stick to my guns and say Edwards would be a better match-up with Bush in the fall ? but independents may not be in a position to affect Kerry’s momentum.
