Historian Niall Ferguson admits his latest Newsweek column is based on a “tasteless question”: Has Mohamed Merah’s recent killing spree in Toulouse, France, saved Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidential re-election bid?

Merah’s vile crimes have reminded French voters just how vulnerable they are to the jihadist threat. In recent years, their security forces have done a good job of foiling terrorist plots like the 2000 plan to blow up Strasbourg Cathedral and the 2001 attempt to destroy the U.S. embassy in Paris. The last successful attacks on French soil were back in 1995.

Now Merah has confirmed what many have long feared: that in France,just as in the rest of Europe, Muslim immigrant communities have been successfully penetrated by extremist groups like Jund al-Khilafah, the al Qaeda-affiliated group that claimed responsibility for his attacks. …

… Six weeks ago, le petit Nicolas was still trailing in the polls, far behind the plan B socialist François Hollande, who is campaigning for a 75 percent tax rate for the rich. Yet last week, for the first time since the election campaign began, Sarkozy pulled ahead. True, he had been narrowing the gap steadily since late February by tacking to the right. But it was surely his response to the Toulouse murders that gave him the lead.

“If France counts in the world,” Sarkozy declared after the attack, “it is because France gives its name to … the most beautiful ideals of humanity … The values of France have been attacked … We must be implacable in defending our values.” His audience lapped it up.