What am I missing here? Take the numbers at face value:
Commercial property taxes will likely continue to account for 35 percent of the tax base, with residential property accounting for 65 percent. This means homeowners won’t end up paying proportionately more, as some people had feared would happen, had commercial values come in too low.
Tax revenue, however, will ultimately depend in part on how many people successfully appeal and lower their values. County officials expect overall tax values to decline significantly after appeals are decided.
Recall that the residential tax base came in at $60b. — $58.8b. if memory serves. Do the math — that points to a total tax base of about $90b., perhaps even less if commercial values are as aggressively appealed as I think they will be. The unknown represented by the appeals will have to factored in as the city and the county set their tax rates.
Then consider that local officials were banking on a big tax base increase to save them from having to confront and reverse years of wild spending. They are simply not prepared to deal with a tax base below $100b.
Let’s sit back and see what happens.